CARRUS Alliance

        Coral reefs around the world are under threat from many factors that have been steadily increasing in intensity over many decades, such as over-fishing, pollution and sedimentation. Large-scale coral bleaching has rapidly grown as a global problem, and ocean chemistry changes in the future are expected to reduce rates of reef accretion (Bryant et al. 1998, Wilkinson 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, Burke et al 2002, 2004). Changing climates will lead to changes in ocean circulation (Vecchi et al 2006), which may reduce settlement rates of coral reef organisms on many reefs. Increasing storm damage (Knutson et al. 1998), will add to coastal runoff problems. Rising sea levels may negatively impact freshwater sources in lowland areas. In some countries, the combined effects of enhanced storms, degradation of subsurface freshwater lenses, and changing agricultural regimes will lead to greater reliance on, and impacts from, coral reef fishing.

        Problems such as the balance of macro-algae to coral cover on reefs under these changing conditions are complex (Hughes 1994, Szmant 2002, McManus et al. 2000, McManus and Polsenberg 2004). Coral reef managers need to know how much of what kinds of fishing can a portion of a reef tolerate given particular levels of nutrients, under what rates, intensities, and types of disturbances to the corals. They need to know what kinds of management approaches under what coupled human-environment conditions have worked in the past, which have not, and why. The answers to these kinds of questions must come from long-term interdisciplinary research in many reef systems subject to varying human and environmental disturbance regimes. The research must be coupled with the development of user-friendly data handling, visualization tools, libraries of past management experiments, best practice guides, and scenario-testing simulation tools.  For small reef systems, best practice guides and associated training may be the most practical approach to improving resource management (McManus et al. 1998). However, for many large reef systems currently bringing in millions of dollars each in annual revenue, as well as for reef management at national and regional scales, we must improve the state-of-the-art in computer-based decision support as we improve the body of knowledge on which decisions should be based. 

        It has been known since the early 1970’s that the best way to advance the scientific study of coral reefs as integrated biophysical systems was to set up multiple, well-coordinated, long-term reef studies in different parts of the world coupled with simulation modeling efforts. At that time, a group of approximately 40 coral reef scientists formed a study group to identify appropriate sites, plan the studies, and seek the necessary support (Sachet and Dahl 1974). Unfortunately, the program was never funded. The concept was revived again in the early 1990’s as a way of determining the impacts of climate change on coral reefs (Buddemeier 1992, Pernetta 1993). The International Oceanographic Commission and other organizations held an international workshop to plan out coordinated studies on a set of reefs around the world (IOC 1991). This was followed by a meeting during the 1992 International Coral Reef Symposium, during which approximately 60 scientists agreed that 50 reef sites would be appropriate. This plan was never brought to fruition. Instead, the meetings instigated the formation of the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN 1997), which became a loose federation of groups primarily focused on determining the status and rates of change for coral reefs globally. This important effort has led to a series of important reports and considerable governmental action (Wilkinson 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004). However, the problem of improving the scientific basis of coral reef management from a comparative, integrated, whole-reef standpoint remains unaddressed.

        In 2001, the Khalid bin Sultan Living Oceans Foundation teamed up with the National Center for Coral Reef Research (NCORE) at the University of Miami and, with sponsorship from US EPA and the Sea Keepers Society, held a workshop on “Priorities for Caribbean Coral Reef Research” (McManus 2001). The 65 participants, representing scientific, governmental, and non-governmental institutions in 17 countries, highlighted the lack of knowledge of coral reefs as integrated systems and called for long-term interdisciplinary research and improved management tools, simulation models, and user-friendly data access. The following year, this was followed by a conference/workshop involving over 300 participants from 13 countries, on “The Future of Decision Support for Coral reef Management” (McManus 2004). The resulting report identified the most appropriate directions for online decision-support tool development, reiterated the need for coordinated interdisciplinary studies, and proposed the formation of an Alliance for the “Comparative Analysis of Reef Resilience Under Stress” (CARRUS Alliance). In particular, it highlighted the fact that many countries are sponsoring large-scale, long-term coral reef monitoring efforts, and that an alliance among these programs could be a practical and cost-effective means to achieve the goals from the proposed programs of the 1970’s and 1990’s.

        At the 2004 International Coral Reef Symposium in Okinawa, NCORE organized a topical symposium session and a meeting on the CARRUS Alliance and associated tool developments. The meeting included representatives from monitoring programs in Australia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Belize, Japan, Hawaii, Florida, and Puerto Rico. There was a great deal of enthusiasm for the proposed Alliance. Nearly all of the ongoing monitoring programs represented were striving to produce more scientific knowledge and better guidance for managing their focal reef systems. They were supportive of the proposed Alliance, which would greatly enhance the effectiveness of their efforts. 

        In 2005, under sponsorship from EPA, NCORE released its online ‘Data Navigator South Florida’ (McManus et al 2005), which demonstrated new ways to provide user-friendly access to large volumes of data in a GIS format. This was followed by ‘Data Navigator St. Croix’, built by the Living Oceans Foundation in collaboration with NCORE. These products were designed to provide frameworks into which scenario-testing models can be incorporated so as to provide spatially-explicit forecasting outputs from existing GIS layers. In 2006, a proof-of-concept simulation model was completed, with a focus on the Buck Island National Monument in the US Virgin Islands. This model, developed by NCORE in collaboration with the Khalid bin Sultan Living Oceans Foundation, demonstrated the means by which a large-scale agent-based simulation model can operate within a GIS-like framework, as called for in the 2002 “Future of Decision Support” Conference/Workshop.
 
        Having completed the initial organizational steps, as well as proof-of-concept products for the unifying decision support focus for the coordinated aspects of the research, we are ready to initiate the full implementation of the CARRUS Alliance.